The Special - Handicapping Tips

Sunday Handicapping
by Brian Nadeau

Race 1: These turf sprints seem to be won on the lead so look no further than BROWN EYED BELLE, who breaks from the rail and makes her turf debut for Gary Contessa. Turf-too-dirt isn’t really Gary’s angle, but at 5 1/2 panels it might not matter. ZIPPY MISSY also makes her turf debut and she may be closest to the top choice early. BRASSY BOOTS could be in a good spot turning for home.

Race 2: The heck with the tote-and-paddock check, let’s get ON WITH IT in this spot. This guy’s dam, Rosie O’Greta (trained by Linda Rice), was one of my all-time favorites – but this isn’t a sentimental play as the gal could run. She’s the only filly ever to win Belmont’s Tremont and she is also a half-sister to monster Surf Cat, as well as throwing a first-out winner out west. ROLLERS has been working in company with Big Truck, who aired in his first start for Barclay Tagg; would be no surprise. GOOD LAW has a license to be a fast 2-year-old for win-early connections.

Race 3: CAT CHARMER made a good account of herself when facing winners for the first time, so she gets a tepid nod. Her closing style fits the profile for these longer turf races as well. QUEEN JOANNE was impressive breaking her maiden Aug. 2, but the waters get deeper. STILLED was ultra-game in losing to heavily favored Clifton Bay downstate, but fear she’ll have to run hard on the lead today.

Race 4: George Weaver has been winning with everything of late, and now rolls out one of his specialties – a horse (DADE COUNTY) returning off of more than 180 days off. WILD QUAKE might get enough speed to set up his rally. ESTIMATOR drops and gets blinkers; wake-up time?

Race 5: A. P. TEST calls multiple Grade I-winner Riskaverse kin, and that’s good enough for this spot. Two useful efforts to start her career should have her primed for her best. INDA ran too-good-to-lose last out, but you haven’t exactly been able to set your watch by her either. Don’t expect a price on FINAL REFRAIN, as everyone saw the nightmare trip Aug. 12. The problem is that with her deep-closing style, you might get that trip once again, at a much shorter number than 12-1.

Race 6: OK, might want to dust off the tote-and-paddock check here, as this one is wide open. Want a bomb, do ya? Not often William Clifton and trainer Jimmy Bond spend $300,000 for a horse, so I’ve got to believe TENACIOUS is a runner. Seeing Edgar Prado aboard increases my confidence even more; any sort of tote action and we might have something. BANNER DAY ran well in her debut for a good 2-year-old outfit. Either half of Bill Mott’s entry of MOON DE FRENCH or SUNDAY HOLIDAY would be no surprise.

Race 7: Need to be inside in these 9-furlong races on the main, and STUD MUFFIN qualifies from the wood. He’ll need to improve off his last dirt score two back, but he’s only 3, so it’s not out of the question. OPTIMISTIC STEVE was nothing of the sort after sitting a perfect trip earlier in the meet. He has to be able to do better, right? SIDEWAYS GLANCE might get brave on the lead.

Race 8: We need to go with a fresh new face in here so let’s try JESSE’S JUSTICE. It’s been an off meet for Todd Pletcher, but he looks to have a classy turfer on his hands here. TISHMEISTER showed a new dimension last time, stalking and pouncing to score. At 2-for-15 she isn’t exactly a win machine. Allen Jerkens is a genius, so BECKY’S FLUTE is just fine by me.

Race 9: If you missed the wedding, don’t go to the funeral, right? Well, the problem is PAYS TO DREAM was more than 9-1 last time, meaning he’s got to be another good price here. He better be, as I’m not sure a mile and three sixteenths is his game. However, he’s extremely talented for expert turf connections. DISTORTED REALITY seems to be a grinder and that might play to his advantage here. Faced “Nobiz” and Marcavelly last time, and there’s no one like that in here. The same goes for AMBASSADOR, who was only a neck behind Distorted last time. Might be better suited for this distance as well.

Race 10: The feeling here is that Kenny McPeek has a very special 2-year-old filly on his hands in A TO THE CROFT. She’s going to win the Spinaway, and she’s going to be a fair price to boot . . . what more can you ask for? PASSION followed the top one in the Adirondack and should be closing again. Here’s your “get out of the meet on top” exacta. IRISH SMOKE was visually impressive in her facile debut score, but she’s wading in the deep end of the pool here.

Race 11: Linda Rice can’t seem to do any wrong on the Spa turf, and her firster INFLUENTIAL meets no one special in here. CRUSADER’S CODE is a bounce candidate, but even if she does it might be enough to score in this spot. MOTHER CAT stretches out and won’t have to improve much to factor.

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